20/11-03   -   Pressemeldinger

IDC Adjusts Expectations for 2003 IT Growth

Economies in the Nordic countries are developing slower than anticipated and this is affecting the IT growth outlook. As a result, IDC has downgraded its 2003 IT growth expectations for the Nordic region by two percentage points to a 0% growth rate.

The financial outlook for 2003 has now worsened considerably in Denmark, with the second-quarter contraction in Danish GDP deeper than previously thought. The new figures show the economy contracted by 0.6% on a quarterly basis and by 1% on the year and this leads to a new GDP forecast for 2003 of 1.4%.

In Sweden, the forecast is a GDP growth rate of 1.3% this year. GDP forecast for Finland is the same, at 1.3% for 2003. Norway is the worst-performing market in 2002 and 2003, with GDP forecast at just 0.3%. Norway is also the only country in the Nordic region where the number of corporate bankruptcies continues to increase — 15% in the third quarter of 2003, according to Statistics Norway.

The low-growth markets and the continued pressure on enterprise profitability lead to a more subdued IT market and IDC has revised its IT growth forecast to a flat market. Still, this is a key improvement over IT growth in 2002, when the Nordic IT market dropped by 3% in local value.
Sweden is slightly different. Most of the market is expected to see flat growth in 2003, but the dropout of the once-popular PC Home schemes has dragged growth down in the large PC segment. This leads to a revised forecast for total IT growth in Sweden of -4% in 2003.

IDC is considerably more positive about 2004 growth. There are clear signs in the market that it is gradually improving, and the effect in 2004 will be more visible than in 2003. One key sign is IDC´s IT Investment Index, an enterprise IT investment confidence index, which slowly improved in the past three quarters of 2003.
"If people are looking for a turnaround in the market, they will be disappointed," said Per Andersen, managing director of IDC Nordic. "The improvement in IT market conditions comes so slowly that it will not be seen as a ´turnaround.´ Nevertheless, the improvement in market conditions is real."

IDC´s Revised IT Market Forecasts
IT market growth (real terms, local currencies) 2003 2004
Denmark -4.0% 3.0%
Sweden -0.1% 5.7%
Finland -0.4% 4.7%
Norway -0.1% 5.8%
Source: IDC, November 2003

For more information concerning this service contact:
Per Andersen
+45 39 16 22 22
pandersen@idc.com

For more information on this document (Nordic Quarterly Executive Service, IDC #660346), please contact one of the following:
Denmark — Susanne Arildsen, +45 39 16 22 43
Norway — Åke Lunden, +46 8 751 0415
Sweden — Pelle Hallberg, +46 8 751 0415
Finland — Pipsa Ylä-Mononen, +358 9 8770 4654
Nordic — Pelle Hallberg, +46 8 751 0415

About IDC
IDC is the premier global market intelligence and advisory firm in the information technology and telecommunications industries. We analyze and predict technology trends so that our clients can make strategic, fact-based decisions on IT purchases and business strategy. Over 700 IDC analysts in 50 countries provide local expertise and insights on technology markets. Business executives and IT managers have relied for 40 years on our advice to make decisions that contribute to the success of their organizations.

IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world’s leading technology media, research, and events company. Additional information can be found at www.idc.com

# # #

All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders.