Nordic IT Spending Growth Stabilizing, Says IDC
Following a period of declining IT investment in the Nordic region in 2002–2003, spending on software, IT services, and hardware is believed to have returned to positive growth again last year. IDC believes IT spending increased by almost 6% in 2004. The strongest markets in the region were Finland and Norway.
Thanks to a slower hardware market in 2005, IDC expects growth in total IT spending to reach between 4% and 5% in 2005, then to pick up again to 6% in 2006, with no major fluctuations over the next three years.
Indicators that Nordic IT growth is currently stabilizing are:
Â·The IT investment index developed by IDC seems to have reached its peak and is not expected to improve further this year.
Â·Economic growth in the Nordic region is stabilizing at around 2.5% and economists are not expecting any further improvement to this. In fact, there is now a minor downward trend in both short- and long-term GDP Development.
Â·Sweden and Denmark currently have the lowest IT growth expectations for this year due to subdued growth in the hardware market, and in the case of Sweden, slower growth in IT services compared to the other Nordic countries.
Â·Finland continues to outgrow the other Nordic markets while the outlook for Norway has improved somewhat over the past quarter; the Norwegian market is turning around faster than previously anticipated.
Consideration should also be given to the factors which may fundamentally change the current stability in IT growth expectations for 2006 and onwards. Two factors can be considered in this respect:
Â·Negative geopolitical events. With the U.S. again getting closer to Europe, and improved conditions in the Middle East and Iraq (at least not deteriorating), IDC does not believe such events to be likely. A major terrorist event may, however, change the scenario.
Â·Significant events in the global economy. There is no major negative event on the horizon Â— the U.S. economy is currently growing faster than Europe, while both the Italian and German economies are starting to catch up with the rest of Europe.
"Growth in IT investment is expected to max out during 2005 and 2006," said Per Andersen, managing director of IDC Nordic. "We expect to see IT markets in the Nordic region stabilize over the next two to three years, and growth to level out at around 6%."
IDC Revised Nordic Region IT Market Forecasts
Source: IDC Nordic, February 2005
The results of IDC´s research are presented in Nordic Quarterly Executive Service, Q1, 2005 (Doc #N520501M). For information on how to purchase this study, please contact your local IDC office or visit www.idc.com.
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